Sources Sought for Predictive Decision Analysis (PDA) Modeling Support

This Sources Sought is not a Request for Proposal. It is a market research tool being used to determine the adequacy of potential business sources, especially small business sources, prior to determining the method of acquisition and issuance of a Request for Proposal (RFP). The Government is not obligated to and will not pay for any information received from potential sources as a result of this announcement. Any information submitted by respondents to this technical description is strictly voluntary. Responses in any form are not offers and the Government is under no obligation to issue a solicitation or award a contract as a result of this announcement. The requested information is to assist the United States Navy in conducting Market Research of industry to determine potential business sources who have the assets, skills, experience, qualifications and knowledge required to support the below requirement. This requirement is subject to change and the information provided herein is for informational purposes only. The final requirement, if any, would be defined under a formal RFP and announced on

At this time, no official solicitation documents exist. This Sources Sought announcement is not a contract, a RFP, a promise to contract, or a commitment of any kind. The US Government will not assume liability for costs incurred by any offer or for travel expenses, presentations, marketing efforts or data related to any data offered for examination. Therefore, the cost of preparing information in response to this notice is not considered an allowable direct or indirect charge to the Government.


The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division (NAWCAD), located at the Naval Air Station Patuxent River, MD intends to modify the N00421-16-D-0012 IDIQ contract to increase the ceiling to cover an approximate nine week extension to the period of performance on a sole source basis to Lone Star Aerospace for Predictive Decision Analysis (PDA) Modeling Support.  Utilization of LSA’s suite of existing modeling tools and subject matter experts will enable the identification of focused improvements in T-45 engine depot-level maintenance procedures and accommodate additional orders anticipated to be awarded through 15 October 2021 when the follow-on contract is expected to be in place.  PDA uses TruNavigator® to develop mathematical and physics-based, stochastic modeling solutions following a proven approach to data collection, validation, creation, and processing.  Enabled by an advanced decision analysis and planning software suite, the tools used for analytics are suited for estimating probability distributions of potential outcomes by allowing for random variation in one or more inputs over time. The Program Executive Officer (PEO), Tactical Aircraft Programs (PEO(T)), Navy Undergraduate Flight Training Systems Program Office (PMA273) has a requirement to procure PDA services which will provide operational sustainment support for existing, fielded modeling tools/simulations originally procured under contract N68936-12-D-0033 by NAWCWD (China Lake) and N00421-16-D-0012 (NAWCAD). PMA273 is responsible for the development of PDA modeling services in support of important decision-making processes for Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIRSYSCOM) Senior Leadership. The PDA models provide key elements including data collection, analysis, and recommendations that will improve NAVAIRSYSCOM and NAE operational excellence and provide objective, third party assessments to leadership at all levels. The highly specialized services procured via this requirement will allow for the continued facilitation and improvement of the models currently being provided to NAVAIR.  Fielded models were developed, validated and verified under contracts N68936-10-D-0046 and N68936-12-D-0033.  These models include:

          (1) Lead Systems Integrator Model – a programmatic decision analysis tool to support Acquisition Strategies for the Program Manager.  The results provide defendable and consistent means of communicating acquisition strategies up the chain of command.  Results are based on quantitative and systematic development of the acquisition strategy enabling a collection of Integrated Program Team experience applied to making programmatic decisions.

(2) Chief of Naval Air Training (CNATRA) Enterprise Model (CEM) –  a tool that synchronizes and optimizes complex air crew production decisions for leadership, despite unpredictable weather, multiple training pipelines, aircraft groundings, and other disruptions to produce aircrews and avoid crippling pilot shortages.

(3) CNATRA Fleet Replacement Squadron Model – a simulation similar to the CEM above but incorporating data and metrics targeting Fleet Replacement Squadrons.

(4) Total Life Cycle Support Manning Model – a fleet asset management and resource planning tool to assess optimized maintenance scheduling, forecasting turnaround times, modification planning, predicting life expectancy of assets, optimized distribution of assets across the fleet, and utilization tracking. Outcomes facilitate effective fleet management planning in order to maximize operational readiness and ensure supply of fleet assets successfully meets utilization demand.  Scalable models include simulations of repair/production line processes to facilitate more informed programmatic decisions and optimize production throughput and cost.   

(5) CNATRA Naval Aviation Skill Attachment Model (NASAM) – a model that methodically collects data to highlight consequences of decisions to include impacts to safety, aircrew proficiency, currency, readiness, and cost.  The model establishes a proficiency baseline against which optimization efforts can be compared.  NASAM architecture includes building skill attainment, skill sustainment, and skill decay models.  Using the NASAM, proficiency analysis can be performed within the primary, intermediate, and advanced flight training curriculum.

(6) Fleet Maintenance Manning Model – maintenance staffing optimization software tool that allows the user to develop, document and test various maintenance constructs.  Outputs of the model include (1) Full Time Equivalents (FTE) by skill set, (2) FTE for Support Staff, (3) Total FTE, (4) Man Hours by skill set down to individual Inspection, (5) Total Man Hours, (6) Cost by skilled labor category, (7) Cost by Support Staff category, and (8) Total Cost.   

(7) Customer Satisfaction Measurement Model – tool to enable data collection, database maintenance, and hosting of a customer satisfaction measurement tool with an objective of improving customer service.

Lone Star Aerospace is the sole designer, developer, and manufacturer of the Predictive Decision Analysis Models and owns the technical data rights for the models described above.

Place of Performance: USA

The applicable North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Code for this requirement is 541330 – Engineering Services.  The Product Service Code is R425, which is for Professional Engineering/Technical services.   Businesses of all sizes are encouraged to respond; however, each respondent must clearly identify its business size in its capabilities statement. Please note that under a Small-Business Set-Aside, in accordance with FAR 52.219-14, the small business prime must perform at least 50% of the work themselves in terms of the cost of performance.

It is requested that interested small and large businesses submit to the contracting office a capabilities statement package (no more than 20 pages size 8.5 x 11 inches in length, paginated, single-spaced, and 10-point font minimum). All responses shall include Company Name, Company Address, and at least two Points of Contact including name, phone number, fax number, and email address. The capabilities statement shall demonstrate the company's ability to perform the services as described in this synopsis. The capabilities statement shall address in detail, at a minimum, all items under Contractor Survey, Parts I, II and III.


1. Below are the descriptions of the PDA Modeling Support requirements survey.

2. If, after reviewing this document, you desire to participate in the market research, provide documentation that supports your company’s capability in meeting these requirements. Failure to provide documentation may result in the U.S. Government being unable to adequately assess your capabilities. If you lack sufficient experience/capability in a particular area, please provide details explaining how you would overcome the lack of experience/capability in order to perform that portion of the requirement (i.e., teaming, subcontracting, etc.). Additionally, please state in your submittal if you intend to submit as the prime Contractor or as a subcontractor (identify the prime Contractor with whom you will subcontract).  Please include intentions for small business utilization if your company is not classified as a small business.

3. Both large and small businesses, pursuant to the size status for NAICS Code 541330 are encouraged to participate in this market research. Joint ventures or teaming arrangements are acceptable.

4. Questions relative to this Sources Sought should be addressed to (INSERT NAME, EMAIL)


Part I: Business Information

Please provide the following business information for your company/institution and for any teaming or joint venture partners:

1. Company/Institute Name:

2. Address:

3. Two Points of Contact:

4. CAGE Code:

5. Phone Number:

6. E-mail Address:

7. Web Page URL:

8. Size of business pursuant to NAICS Code: 541330. Based on the above NAICS Code, state whether your company is:

a. Small Business (Yes / No)

b. Woman Owned Small Business (Yes / No)

c. Small Disadvantaged Business (Yes / No)

d. Economically Disadvantaged Woman-Owned Small Business (Yes / No)

e. 8(a) Certified (Yes / No)

f. HUBZone Certified (Yes / No)

g. Veteran-Owned Small Business (Yes / No)

h. Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (Yes / No)

i. System for Award Management Registration (formerly CCR) registered? (Yes / No)

9. A statement as to whether your company is domestically owned or foreign owned or foreign controlled (if foreign, please indicate the country of ownership).



Part II: General Capability

Answers to the below inquiries will be evaluated to determine capability and the likelihood that requirements can be executed based on capability and the chosen approach of respondents.  The evaluation will be assessed for risk and impact of cost, schedule and technical performance related matters that could occur depending on the management approach, current capability and needs to establish additional capability.  It is preferable to the Government that similar responses to separate inquiries be identified by reference to areas within this market research response that the Contractor feels adequately address the inquiry.

1. Please describe your prior/current corporate experience and performance of requirements of this type, size, and complexity of effort within the last 5 years.  For each such experience referenced, please provide contract number, organization supported, indication of whether performance was as a prime or subcontractor, contract value, Government point of contact, and a brief description of how the referenced contract relates to the requirements objectives.

2. Provide a summary of the company's capability to meet the requirements objectives and perform the efforts for a contract of this magnitude.

3. Describe your Company profile to include major products/services, primary customer base, number of employees, annual revenue history, office location, Cage Code(s), statement regarding current Small Business Administration (SBA) business size and socio-economic classification under (i.e., small, Small-Disadvantaged, Service-Disabled, Veteran-Owned, HUBZone, etc.), statement whether your interest in this effort is as a prime Offeror or to express interest regarding subcontracting possibilities, and contact information (telephone and email) for points of contact of those able to discuss the material submitted.  A key factor in determining if an acquisition will be a Small Business Set-Aside is that two or more potential small business prime Contractors must be capable of performing at least 50 percent of the effort, as defined in Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) clause 52.219-14, Limitations on Subcontracting. If it is determined that a small business set-aside is appropriate and your company anticipates submitting a proposal as the prime Contractor for a small business set-aside, please provide specific details and rationale as to how compliance with FAR clause 52.219-14 would be achieved, including specific details regarding teaming arrangements, etc. If subcontracts are to be used, provide anticipated percentage of effort to be subcontracted and whether small or large businesses will be used. Teaming and/or subcontracting arrangements should be clearly delineated and previous experience in teaming must be provided.

4. Describe your capability for this effort. Explain any element of this requirement (i.e., technical data development, etc.) that your company either doesn’t have or that must be established to accomplish tasks that result from the requirements.

5. Is your company capable of performing at least 50% of the cost of manufacturing the supplies, not including the cost of materials (IAW FAR clause 52.219-14 Limitations on Subcontracting) and do you intend to perform at least 50% of the work of the cost of manufacturing the supplies, not including the cost of materials as the prime offeror?

6. Does your company have the ability to begin performance thirty (30) days following a contract award?

7. Describe any limitations your company may have for responding to these requirements. Include limitations and courses of action necessary to overcome the limitation. Identify whether the limitation is based on cost, schedule or technical performance issues you feel should be considered.

Part III: Technical Approach

1. Describe the ability of your company to provide PDA Modeling Support.  Since the Government does not own data rights to the PDA Modeling tools referenced above, describe how you will provide support without Government-furnished technical data. If you will be partnering with another company, provide the company name and contact information for an individual knowledgeable about the teaming arrangement at that company. Did you coordinate with the company on this possible partnership and are they willing to be in the partnership?

2.  Provide information on your company’s ability to meet the following requirements: 

  1. Ability to obtain the technical data necessary to operate and sustain the existing PDA models
  2. Capability of delivering PDA model sustainment services within 15 days of contract award

Upon evaluation of capabilities statements, if it is determined that this requirement will be an unrestricted competition, the Government intends to evaluate the Small-Business responses and conduct further market research to identify subcontracting goals.  The acquisition strategy has not yet been determined. Market research results will assist the Navy in determining whether this requirement will be a full and open, a small business set aside, or a sole source acquisition.

Your Capabilities Statement shall be submitted by email and received no later than xxxpm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on TBD and shall reference “”PMA273 PDA Modeling Support” on both the email and all enclosed documents to the Contract Specialist, (INSERT NAME), in either Microsoft Word or Portable Document Format (PDF), via email at (INSERT EMAIL) with a copy to (NAME) at (INSERT EMAIL). Information and materials submitted in response to this request WILL NOT be returned.  Classified material SHALL NOT be submitted. This request is for informational purposes only.  All data received in response to this Sources Sought that is marked or designated as corporate or proprietary will be fully protected from any release outside the Government.  The Government does not intend, nor is it under any obligation, to provide responses or comments on the submitted capability statement package. 

NOTE: Contractors must be registered in the System for Award Management (SAM) database to be eligible for award and payment from any DOD activity.  Information on registration and annual confirmation requirements for SAM may be obtained by calling 866-606-8220, or by accessing the SAM website at  Also, should the Government release an RFP for this effort, the successful offeror will be required to register for access to Wide Area Workflow (WAWF) for invoicing and payment by NAVAIR. Information on self-registration for WAWF can be obtained at, additional support concerning PIEE can be accessed by calling the NAVY PIEE Assistance Line 866-618-5988.

All questions regarding this Sources Sought notice must be submitted via email to (INSERT NAME AND EMAIL).  No questions will be accepted by phone.

Government responses to submitted questions will be posted on   The Government is not committed nor obligated to pay for the information provided, and no basis for claims against the Government shall arise as a result of a response to this Sources Sought.